A Timely Reform by Ian Ridley

We now know a little more about two absentee MPs from last week’s Iraq Inquiry vote.

As I suspected, the Conservatives are not what you’d call united on the issue

Tory MP Quentin Davies abstained in the vote. The a former defence frontbencher described Conservative support for the motion as “absolutely crazy”.

According to the BBC, Mr. Davies “added the credibility of the party as an alternative government would be seriously damaged if it gave the impression of “cynically” shifting with the prevailing party political wind.”

Another unnamed abstainer – described as a “senior” Tory – described David Cameron’s decision to vote for an immediate inquiry as “intellectually and morally indefensible”.

There does need to be an immediate inquiry into the run-up to Iraq, both looking at political decision-making and military preparations. The Tories would look more credible and lend more weight to the case if they hadn’t hurried through the Nationalists’ Division Lobby at the last minute. As it is Davies and his anonymous colleague are partially right – it just looks like they were trying to get one over on Labour for the sake of it.

Meanwhile Plaid Cymru leader Elfyn Llwyd who also abstained, stated that he was “paired” with a government minister and continued his visit to Spain.

Finally 4 Labour ministers and a PPS did not vote. Can we assume all of them were “paired”?

Until like Davies and Llwyd, MPs state why they were absent, speculation is all we have.

So Labour won the vote to reject last night’s motion in the Commons on whether to have an enquiry into the Government’s conduct in the run-up to the Iraq war.

But Labour’s majority of 25 disguises several interesting voting patterns.

Firstly, this was an Opposition Day debate. Labour MPs who do not agree with Blair are more reluctant to vote for a motion led by an opposition party. This was particularly applicable last night, with the SNP and Plaid Cymru moving the motion and the Welsh and Scottish Parliamentary elections due in 6 months. Potential Labour rebels were reluctant to vote in a way that would give credit to the Nationalists.

Next, the Tories have brass necks. Having joined Labour in 2003 in backing the Iraq war, they put a two-line whip on backing the enquiry last nght. This amounts to a “not quite pulling out all the stops” approach to getting their MPs out to vote. I rather think had the Tories been in power in 2003, they would have taken the same decisions as Blair and would be as obstructive to an enquiry now.

So the vote went 298 to 273. The Public Whip helpfully analyses the vote in a way that puts Hansard to shame. Looking at the Public Whip’s data I find:

• 12 Labour MPs voted for the enquiry – well done to them for putting expediency aside and voting with principle;
• 1 Labour MP went through both lobbies (David Taylor of NW Leics) – this may have been to cancel out a mistaken vote or to register an absention;
• 41 Labour MPs were either absent or abstained;
• 14 Tory MPs were either absent or abstained;
• 59 Lib Dem MPs voted for the enquiry, the remaining 4 were either absent or abstained;
• 3 Democratic Unionist MPs were either absent or abstained;
• 1 Plaid Cymru MP was either absent or abstained (Elfyn Llwyd of Meirionnydd Nant Conwy).

What does this mean?

MPs may have abstained because they were ill, “paired” due unavoidable committments or because they chose not to vote. I suspect many of the 41 Labour non-shows and not a few of the 14 Tories fall into the latter category.

I haven’t much time for those Labour MPs who want an enquiry but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Nationalist- sponsored motion. What is more important? How things might appear to voters or the reality of the Iraq War?

The deliberate Tory stay-aways just reflect their muddle on this issue. They backed the government on Iraq whilst the Lib Dems, with access to the same information, chose to oppose. Now the Tories have no clear idea what to do about the situation: Back Labour’s line? Call for an enquiry? They are rudderless on the issue.

The Lib Dems and the Nationlists put nearly all of their Parliamentary numbers behind the call for a much needed enquiry. The motion may have carried with half a dozen or so more Tories, a couple more DUP MPs and a dozen more Labour MPs putting their principles before perception.

Instead the Government is still not properly held to account for the deception of why Iraq was invaded. And we cannot learn the much-needed lessons that might stop the same mistakes being made again.

Those “rebels” & absentees/abstainers:

Labour MPs voting for the enquiry:

Tories who didn’t vote:

Labour MPs who didn’t vote:

Lib Dems who didn’t vote:

DUP MPs who didn’t vote: